Buster Olney is the true champion of “On Pace” tweets.
If you’re not sure what that means, here his latest one:
We’re about a third of the way through the season, and Aaron Judge is on pace for:
176 hits
135 walks
37 doubles
47 homers
128 runs
132 RBI.
After finishing second in the AL MVP voting last year.
So, yes, he’s on the list.— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) May 27, 2018
What he does (or more likely has produced for him) is he takes the current players stats, works out the pace the player accumulated those stats and then pumps out a tweet saying what they are likely to finish with if they continue at that pace.
The question is, how often does Buster (or whomever produces them for him) get this right? This isn’t a “Ha! You’re wrong!” post, it’s more of an opportunity to ask how useful the “On Pace” thought process is.
So let us go back to the start of 2017 and check how the “on pace” tweets finished the year.
First up, here’s one for Jose Ramirez on the 4th May 2017:
Jose Ramirez currently on pace for: 192 hits, 78 extra-base hits, 90 runs, 36 homers, 138 RBI. https://t.co/tWOLmxkvrU
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) May 4, 2017
The tables may not display correctly on a mobile device. Please switch to landscape mode.
Category | ”On Pace” for | Finished with | Difference |
Hits | 192 | 186 | -6 |
Extra-Base Hits | 78 | 72 | -6 |
Runs | 90 | 107 | +17 |
HR | 36 | 29 | -7 |
RBI | 138 | 83 | -55 |
Total | -57 |
The actual differences weren’t too bad, except for RBIs, which just shows how volatile and how crappy a stat it is.
Next, we’ll try the free swinging Ryan Zimmerman who had a fantastic start to the 2017 season, here’s Buster’s tweet on the 7th May 2017:
Ryan Zimmerman is swinging so well that he is on pace for: 254 hits, 135 extra-base hits, 70 HR, 151 runs, 184 RBI. https://t.co/Q8FMLfxxPd
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) May 7, 2017
Category | ”On Pace” for | Finished with | Difference |
Hits | 254 | 159 | -95 |
Extra-Base Hits | 135 | 33 | -102 |
HR | 70 | 36 | -34 |
Runs | 151 | 90 | -61 |
RBI | 184 | 108 | -76 |
Total | -368 |
Wow, thats a blow out. Surely the rest can’t be that bad?
Let’s try a pitcher next, here’s a tweet for Craig Kimbrel on the 11th June 2017:
Craig Kimbrel on pace for best-ever season: 17.98 K Per 9 IP ratio, and 0.47 WHIP. No reliever has ever achieved those numbers over 65+ IP.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 11, 2017
Category | ”On Pace” for | Finished with | Difference |
K/9 | 17.98 | 16.43 | -1.55 |
WHIP | 0.47 | 0.68 | +0.21 |
Innings Pitched | 65+ | 69.0 | +4.0 |
This wasn’t a bad one, Kimbrel ended up continuing on his trend from mid-June to have a great season. Also, with relief pitching they pitch less frequently and someone like Kimbrel is less volatile. So let’s head back to the hitters and look and the Arizona Diamondbacks Paul Goldschmidt. Here’s Buster’s “on pace” tweet from 15th June 2017:
Paul Goldschmidt currently on pace for: 140 runs, 184 hits, 111 walks, 31 steals, 36 homers, 128 RBI. https://t.co/gh0EX6gcM1
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 15, 2017
Wow, they are seriously good stats for Goldschmidt. That would have been the most runs, hits and RBI he’d ever scored in a season, matching his best ever HR season, one SB short of his previous best (32 in 2016) and seven short of his best ever walk total. What a year!
As before, we’ll now compare Goldschmidt’s “on pace” with what he actually finish- wait, what’s this?
The on pace figures have changed (odd that) and Buster sticks out another tweet (With extra stats). This time on the 23rd June:
Paul Goldschmidt on pace for 42 doubles, 40 homers, 146 runs, 142 RBI, 104 walks, 195 hits, 29 stolen bases. https://t.co/gh0EX6gcM1
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) June 23, 2017
Unsurprisingly the stats have changed. So let’s try to compare them with what he finished with. We’ll take the average of the two tweets, when it comes to the difference column.
Category | “On pace” for (15th June) | “On pace” for (23rd June) | Average for Tweets | Finished with | Difference |
Runs | 140 | 146 | 143 | 117 | -26 |
Hits | 184 | 195 | 190 | 166 | -24 |
Walks | 111 | 104 | 108 | 94 | -14 |
Steals | 31 | 29 | 30 | 18 | -12 |
HRs | 36 | 40 | 38 | 36 | -2 |
RBIs | 128 | 142 | 135 | 120 | -15 |
Doubles | N/A | 42 | 42 | 34 | -8 |
Total | -101 |
These were just a few examples from last year and as I said at the top of the post, this isn’t a chance to point and laugh at Buster. Mainly because he wouldn’t care, but it’s not really the done thing. We put our opinions and analysis out there and we never expect to get it right every single time. What we do though, is try to use different ways of expressing how good or bad a players season has been. Whether that is the “on pace” method, comparisons to the league as a whole, comparisons for that players career so far etc.
In my opinion, the “on pace” method doesn’t really add anything to the party this early into the season. It’s probably more suited to players post All-Star break, as we can get a real feel if they will beat old personal bests or — even better — break a current all-time record.
Feel free to keep enjoying Buster and his “on pace” tweets, but please do take them with a very large pinch of salt.