Betting on Major League Baseball (MLB) games can be a thrilling and profitable pastime.
However, making smart bets requires understanding how to read betting odds and employing
effective strategies. This article will discuss the different types of MLB betting odds, provide tips for making wise wagers, and highlight common mistakes to avoid.
Understanding MLB Betting Odds
Moneyline bets are straightforward wagers on which team will win an MLB game. These odds
are represented by a positive (+) or negative (-) number next to each team’s name. A positive
number indicates the underdog, while a negative number signifies the favourite.
For example, if the New York Yankees are -150 favourites against the Boston Red Sox at +130,
you would need to bet £150 on the Yankees to potentially win £100 or bet £100 on the Red Sox
to potentially win £130. Despite favourites winning 57.5% of the time in recent years, it’s essential
not only to focus on these percentages but also to consider other factors when placing your bets.
Run Line Betting
Run line bets involve wagering on a team to win or lose by a specific margin of runs (usually
1.5). This type of bet can offer better value than moneyline bets for games with clear favourites or
When placing run line wagers, it’s important to consider weather conditions and wind direction
that may affect gameplay. Researching these variables can help identify instances where an
underdog might outperform expectations or when a favourite may struggle.
Over/under bets entail predicting whether the combined score of both teams in an MLB game
will be over or under a specified total set by sportsbooks. Finding value in totals betting often
involves identifying trends in teams’ offensive and defensive performances and considering
external factors that may impact scoring.
Tips for Making Smart MLB Bets
Focusing on One Team
Concentrating on one team throughout the season can give you a deeper understanding of their
strengths, weaknesses, and performance trends—knowledge that can prove invaluable when
Studying Teams’ Records Against the Spread
Before wagering on a specific game, analyze each team’s record against the spread (ATS). This
information can reveal which teams consistently outperform or underperform expectations –
an essential factor to consider when placing bets.
Managing your bankroll is key to long-term success in MLB betting. This means setting a budget, determining bet sizes based on potential risk and reward, and adjusting your strategy to maintain financial stability.
Shopping Around for the Best Lines and Odds
Comparing odds across multiple sportsbooks ensures you receive the best value for each bet.
For example, if you are in a betting game, you can bet on Major League Baseball at FanDuel
Sportsbook, which offers competitive lines and user-friendly features for bettors seeking an
optimal experience while wagering on MLB games.
In-Game Betting Strategies
In-game betting, also known as live betting, allows bettors to wager on events and outcomes as
a game happens in real-time. This type of betting can provide additional opportunities to
capitalize on shifts in momentum, injuries, or other game-changing factors. To excel at in-game
betting, consider the following strategies:
- Watch the game closely and look for momentum shifts, as these can often present
valuable betting opportunities.
- Take note of any significant injuries or lineup changes which could impact a team’s
- Keep an eye on the odds as they change throughout the game, and be prepared to
pounce when you spot value.
Advanced MLB Betting Metrics
If you want to make more informed decisions when betting on MLB games, consider
incorporating advanced statistical metrics into your analysis. These can provide a more
nuanced understanding of a team’s performance and potential. Some popular advanced MLB
- WAR (Wins Above Replacement): This statistic measures a player’s total contribution to
their team in terms of wins. A higher WAR indicates a more valuable player.
- wOBA (Weighted On-Base Average): This metric accurately represents a hitter’s
offensive performance more accurately than traditional stats like batting average or on-
- FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching): This stat measures a pitcher’s effectiveness based
solely on outcomes they can control (strikeouts, walks, and home runs), eliminating the
impact of team defence.
By incorporating these advanced metrics into your MLB betting analysis, you can develop a
more comprehensive understanding of a team’s performance and identify potential betting
opportunities that might not be apparent using traditional statistics alone.
Avoiding Common MLB Betting Mistakes
To make smart bets, you need to avoid the following mistakes:
Betting on Big Favorites
Although favourites tend to win more often than underdogs, betting solely on big favourites can be
risky—especially if they’re heavily favoured in terms of odds. A single loss could erase any
previous gains from wagering on these teams.
Betting Against the Public
In some instances, there may be value in betting against the public, as sportsbooks often inflate
odds to capitalize on one-sided action. Savvy bettors can take advantage of these skewed odds
by identifying situations where the public may be overvaluing or undervaluing a team.
Parlays and Teasers
While parlays and teasers may offer the allure of massive payouts, they typically carry a low
probability of success due to their dependence on multiple outcomes. As such, avoiding these types of bets is best when wagering on MLB games.
Understanding MLB betting odds and making smart bets is crucial for long-term success in
baseball wagering. Utilising the tips and resources provided in this article can improve your
chances of enjoying consistent profits while indulging your passion for the sport.