The regular season was scheduled to finish yesterday, but instead, we have an appetite-whetting double-header between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets today. The first pitch in Game 1 is at 6:10 pm (British time).
While we watch the action unfold from the UK, the Diamondbacks will be glued to every pitch in Phoenix, unsure whether they will board a plane to Milwaukee later in the evening.
To get to this position, we needed Sunday’s results to go like this:
- New York Mets (on a three-game losing streak) to win against the Brewers
- Arizona Diamondbacks (just one win in their last six games) to beat the Padres
- Atlanta Braves (who hadn’t lost to Kansas City since 2019) to lose at home to the Royals
Amazingly, it happened!
Straight after their game, the Mets boarded a flight from Milwaukee to Atlanta, and the strategy discussions for today’s doubleheader started.
This is the chaos scenario that all neutral fans wanted after Hurricane Helene wiped out last week’s scheduled games, but will Monday be one of the sport’s great baseball days or a damp squib?
“It’s a sporting integrity question,” the great Russell Eassom wisely announced in the Bat Flips & Chat WhatsApp group. And it’s true. The winners of Game 1 will progress to the Wild Card series starting on Tuesday, but they will have no incentive to compete in Game 2.
It was concisely summed up by Jamie Steed: “Sporting integrity goes out the window when you’re playing Game 2 of a double-header the day before you play Game 1 of a playoff series.”
This is also true. The Game 2 starting pitcher for the Game 1 winners will likely be the most expendable pitcher on their roster.
Initially, it looked like Game 1 would be the must-watch fixture, with both teams throwing everything to get the win. However, it quickly transpired that Game 2 could be treated as a “getaway day” by the Game 1 winners, so maybe winning the first game is not as critical. You can easily see the Game 1 winners sitting their superstars and swinging at everything in Game 2, with the team incentivised to lose as quickly as possible to catch their flight out of Georgia.
If the Braves were determined to win Game 1, they would give the ball to Chris Sale, the probable NL Cy Young winner, but he is being held back. Presumably, we will only see him in Game 2 if something has gone horribly wrong. Atlanta will hope he is not needed at all on Monday and therefore fresh to take the mound in the first game of the Wild Card series on Tuesday.
Game 1 probable starters: Tylor Megill v Spencer Schwellenbach
Right-hander Megill has enjoyed an impressive September with four starts, totalling 20 innings for just a 1.80 ERA (2.02 FIP). The Braves are also using a right-handed starter in 24-year-old Schwellenbach, who has made five September starts for 2.73 ERA (4.18 FIP).
Diamondbacks supporters (and neutral fans) will hope that the team that wins Game 1 will at least attempt to sweep. Although we suspect that the winners of Game 1 will throw out their least important pitchers and be eager to get Game 2 finished quickly, their lineup could be a mix of verge-players determined to impress and relaxed sluggers. Hitters like Jorge Soler, Marcell Ozuna, Pete Alonso or Mark Vientos could be even more dangerous if swinging without pressure on them.
The Braves are 6-5 up in the games between the two teams this season, although it’s 2-2 at Truist Park, Atlanta. This is very finely balanced, and I, for one can’t wait.
Weird sidenote: I would like to believe that the winners of Game 1 will don their playoff t-shirts and champagne goggles in the 40 minutes between the two games.
As a Brit who always cheers for the underdog – and the Diamondbacks are very much the underdogs – I’m hoping for a Mets or Braves sweep to send Arizona through to Tuesday’s games.
Here is the easy-to-use breakdown for each team:
- The Braves are in the playoffs if… they win either game of the double-header (or both). They would go to San Diego to face the Padres.
- The Mets clinch a playoff spot if… they win either game of the double-header (or both). If they win both games, they will face the Padres in San Diego. If they win one game, they will return to Milwaukee to face the Brewers.
- The Diamondbacks can only reach the Wild Card playoffs if… either the Braves or Mets sweep in Monday’s double-header. If they do progress, the Diamondbacks will face the Brewers in Milwaukee.
Featured image of Pete Alonso and Matt Olson by David J. Griffin/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images.
Stay tuned to Bat Flips & Nerds for more postseason content, especially our Postseason Preview podcast this week.
.Article by Gav Tramps. Gav quit Twitter X with frustration at the platform’s unwillingness to address its promotion of toxic content, but you can still find him on Instagram and Threads, and of course, via the website.
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