To get a sense of how good the 2025 Chicago Cubs have been just over a third of the way into the season, you simply have to compare their record to those of previous years.
Using 1 June as a benchmark, this is how the Cubs were looking on that date the last four times they made the postseason proper:
- 2015: 27-22
- 2016: 36-15
- 2017: 25-27
- 2018: 31-23
This year, their record on 1 June was 37-22.
While this team doesn’t have quite the same level of quality or depth of the 2016 team, they are currently performing at a comparable level.
At the time of writing, they hold a five game lead over the St. Louis Cardinals at the top of the NL Central, have won their last three games and eight of their last ten, while also accumulating a +102 run differential.
Most importantly, they’ve achieved all of this without Justin Steele, who was ruled out for the season after picking up an elbow injury on 7 April, and Shota Imanaga, who has been out since 5 May with a hamstring injury, while also overcoming the most difficult early schedule in all of baseball.
The offense
The main reason for the team’s success to date has been their offense: the Cubs currently have the third best OPS (.783), the second best average (.262), the second most runs scored (349) and the most RBI (341).
Pete Crow-Armstrong’s breakout has been a huge part of that, as he’s hit .281/.319/.562 with a .881 OPS through 60 games, already exceeding the number of runs (48v46), doubles (15v13), home runs (15v10) and RBI (51v41) he logged last season in just 60 appearances. He has also enhanced his reputation for stealing bases, too, leading all of baseball with 21 at the time of writing.
The arrival of Kyle Tucker this offseason clearly gave the Cubs’ bats a much-needed boost, particularly that of Seiya Suzuki, who currently leads all of baseball in RBI (53).
In fact, Tucker, Suzuki and Crow-Armstrong are currently troubling the leader board across a range of offensive categories, having combined for 143 RBI and 41 home runs in the early going.
This, along with solid early contributions from Carson Kelly (who leads the team in OPS – .927), improvements at the plate from Michael Busch and Miguel Amaya and the consistency we’ve come to expect from the likes of Nico Hoerner and pre-injury Ian Happ has resulted in an offense that has kept pace with those of the Dodgers, Yankees, Phillies and Mets through the early going.
The bullpen
Over the course of the season, the Cubs bullpen has accumulated the 11th best ERA (3.57) and WAR (1.8). However, as Sahadev Sharma points out on The Athletic, “Since April 19, the Cubs’ bullpen has a 2.44 ERA, best in baseball.” It’s also “tied for the third-fewest blown saves over that time with just three.”
What looked like a major weakness for the Cubs coming into the season has, in fact, turned into a strength. Brad Keller (2.22 ERA in 28.1 IP), Caleb Thielbar (2.05 ERA in 22 IP), Chris Flexen (0.00 ERA in 14.1 IP) and Drew Pomeranz (0.00 ERA in 13.2 IP) have all been superb, while Daniel Palencia has emerged as a potential closer, recording five saves from six opportunities to go with a 1.74 ERA in 20.2 innings pitched.
Regardless, the Cubs will probably still need to strengthen further in this area. As Sharma continues: “The group is merely average at both strikeouts and walks, though, so finding help at the deadline makes sense, especially a veteran with high-leverage experience.”
If the early returns for their most recent acquisition are anything to go by, this shouldn’t be a huge concern, though. The Cubs signed lefty Genesis Cabrera to a one-year Major League contract last week. Since then he’s made two appearances for the team, allowing no runs in 2.1 innings pitched.
With Ryan Pressly making strides since his historically bad outing against the Giants in early May and Porter Hodge yet to return from an oblique issue he experienced on 20 May, the bullpen could still continue to improve from within. But if there’s one thing we know about Jed Hoyer’s Cubs it’s that they value pitching depth, meaning there will likely be further improvements between now and the deadline.
The rotation
The biggest area of concern for this year’s Cubs is the rotation. Heading into the season that wasn’t necessarily the case, as Steele, Imanaga and Jameson Taillon were expected to mesh with the newly acquired Matthew Boyd and homegrown slinger Ben Brown to round out a pretty solid rotation.
The injuries to their two best arms and Brown’s struggles have meant others have had to step up, though. Enter veteran Colin Rea (who has a 3.96 ERA and 1.38 WHIP in 52.1 IP) and rookie Cade Horton, who has logged a 3-0 record since handling the Mets in his major league debut at a raucous Citi Field on 10 May.
Thanks to impressive starts from Boyd (3.08 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 61.1 IP) and Taillon (3.76 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 69.1 IP – 14th best in baseball) and the use of an opener at times for both Horton and Brown, the Cubs have been able to weather the absence of their two aces.
However, if there is an area they’re going to need to strengthen at the deadline it’s the rotation, particularly given their early dominance in the division and their rapidly improving World Series odds. Thankfully they have the prospect depth to add some high level talent and will no doubt be aggressive, given that Jed Hoyer – who’s in the final year of his contract – has nothing left to lose.
The Cubs do, though. And while it’s impossible to completely overlook the slumps experienced by the team over the past two seasons, the vibes at Wrigley Field are more immaculate than they have been for a very long time.
Sean Guest is Bat Flips and Nerds’ Chicago Cubs contributor. He can be found on Twitter @ThatLondonCub.
Image credit: Matt Dirksen / Getty Images North America.
Discover more from
Subscribe to get the latest posts sent to your email.
What is your opinion? Let us know