As baseball fans, we often think we know better than billionaire owners, Ivy League–educated front offices, or out-of-touch players – but generally, we don’t. They know what they’re doing.
But maybe I’ve found hard-to-dispute proof that we – or in this case, I – know best. And it all revolves around $250,000.
It starts with arbitration
Arbitration refresher
In simple terms, an MLB team controls a player for the first six years after their big-league debut. In years four, five, and six, the player and team exchange proposed salaries.
There are four outcomes:
- The player’s proposal is accepted.
- The team’s offer is accepted.
- The two sides agree on a figure or a deal after a bit of negotiation.
- The case goes to an arbitration hearing.
Going to arbitration is never taken lightly. Player-team relationships rarely recover fully. Think about it: how many hitters lost arbitration and then signed long-term deals with the same club? Jeff McNeil and Yandy Díaz come to mind. Can you think of any others?
The Skubal Case: Record Discrepancy
The biggest filing discrepancy ever? It’s happening right now, it’s AL Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal seeking $32 million while the Detroit Tigers offer $19 million.
Both sides argue using performance, playing time, awards, and comparable players, but free-agent contracts are off-limits. The key number is $25.5 million – the midpoint. The Tigers don’t need to prove Skubal is worth $19 million or not worth $32 million; they just have to show he’s worth $1 less than $25.5 million.
The 29-year-old avoided arbitration in 2024 with a $2.65 million deal and signed a $10.15 million one-year contract in 2025. He’ll hit the open market at season’s end.
Win or lose, Skubal gets a significant payrise: $8.85 million if he loses, $21.85 million if he wins.
Why Teams (Should) Avoid Arbitration
Bo Bichette nailed it: “Arbitration is an incredibly flawed process… There’s no reason to pit owners and executives against players.”
It is an adversarial process that turns players and teams against each other. These are the same players who battled for that team last season, and will do so again this year.
Teams are incentivised to highlight the player’s flaws. It is extremely personal, with the team emphasising the negative aspects of the player’s game in a frequently confrontational manner.
It’s easy to say “it’s only business”, but even the most secure characters are not immune to feeling violated by the accusations that they are not deserving of the salary they have proposed.
Case in point: Corbin Burnes, February 2023. One of the game’s deadliest starters, former Cy Young winner, 2.61 ERA (2.40 FIP) over 70 starts, yet the Brewers were happy to go to arbitration.
Burnes’ comments are among the most revealing about the arbitration process.
“You kind of find out your true value… they value you much different than you thought you contributed to the organisation. Obviously, it’s tough to hear, tough to take…”
“They basically put me in the forefront of the reason why we didn’t make the postseason last year — that’s something that probably doesn’t need to be said.”
“There’s no denying that the relationship is definitely hurt from what transpired over the last couple weeks. There’s really no way of getting around that.”
It seems obvious that it is in the team’s interest to avoid arbitration
Who’s Heading to Arbitration in 2026?
Over 150 arbitration-eligible players exchanged figures with their teams. In all but 14 cases, deals were reached. Cases are being heard from now until the start of spring training.
The outstanding cases are…
Tarik Skubal (Tigers) — $32M vs. $19M
Isaac Paredes (Astros) — $9.95M vs. $8.75M
William Contreras (Brewers) — $9.9M vs. $8.55M
Tyler Stephenson (Reds) — $6.8M vs. $6.55M
Joe Ryan (Twins) — $6.35M vs. $5.85M
Kris Bubic (Royals) — $6.15M vs. $5.15M
Eric Lauer (Blue Jays) — $5.75M vs. $4.4M
Yainer Diaz (Astros) — $4.5M vs. $3.0M
Vinnie Pasquantino (Royals) — $4.5M vs. $4.0M
Kyle Bradish (Orioles) — $3.55M vs. $2.875M
Keegan Akin (Orioles) — $3.375M vs. $2.975M
Reid Detmers (Angels) — $2.925M vs. $2.625M
Bryce Miller (Mariners) — $2.625M vs. $2.25M
Dylan Lee (Braves) — $2.2M vs. $2.0M
Calvin Faucher (Marlins) — $2.05M vs. $1.8M
Graham Ashcraft (Reds) — $1.75M vs. $1.25M
Cade Cavalli (Nationals) — $900K vs. $825K
Side note: Kyle Bradish is an intriguing player for 2026. Check out Matt’s article – Five Reasons for Optimism for the Baltimore Orioles
The $250,000 Question: Tyler Stephenson
Yes, I accept that the Reds’ ownership is the least affluent among the 30 MLB teams. Bob Castellini is often cited as the poorest owner, with a fortune of a mere $400 million. But taking Tyler Stephenson to arbitration seems ludicrous.
- Tyler Stephenson proposed $6.8 million
- Cincinnati Reds offered $6.55 million
It doesn’t matter whether you look at it as $250K or 3.5%; the difference is embarrassingly small. It is a rounding error for a franchise worth $1.3 billion.
Is it really worth £250K to drag the team’s primary catcher over the coals? We know that the Reds are cheap, but surely they are not that cheap. This must be about sending a message.
Stephenson is 29, an average defensive catcher with above-average bat production. Once thought of as a franchise cornerstone, it appears that the Reds are happy to just move on.
Maybe the team is betting on Alfredo Duno’s future. He is one of the most highly-rated players in the Reds’ farm system, but the kid is just 18 years old. He is a long way from contributing at the major-league level.
Even before walking into the arbitration hearing, Tyler Stephenson has received the message: his value to the franchise is only short-term.
But what does this message send to the rest of the roster? It is not a good look if the former first-round pick, who has been with the organisation for the last 10 years, can be humiliated over $ 250,000.
Baseball fans, and me in particular, might be wrong about many things, but sometimes, just sometimes, we might be right. And when it comes to dragging an established catcher through arbitration for pocket change, this is one of those times.
Featured image of Tyler Stephenson grimacing by Justin K. Aller/Getty Images
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