There’s no other way to say it – the 2025 Braves sucked. Coming into the season, Fangraphs projected the Braves to win 94 games, topping the NL East – and they had the second best projection in the league, behind only the Dodgers. The question seemed to be what would happen when they got to the playoffs, not would they make the playoffs.
As it turned out, injuries and underperformance plagued the team from day one. Every Braves starter was injured at some point or another, with every one of the team’s opening rotation (Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver and Grant Holmes) all hitting the IL by July. By ZiPS, the Braves lost the fifth-most potential WAR from their team due to injury, with most of it coming to their pitching. The Braves ended up using 46 different pitchers and 71 total players over the course of the year – the latter of which is an MLB record.
Surely, this year must be different. This year, Fangraphs project the Braves to win 90 games, topping the NL East – and they have the second best projection in the league, behind only the Dodgers. The question seems to be what happens when they get to the playoffs… wait.
Some of the pitching is better
Even though the Braves didn’t add starting pitching in the offseason – a decision that might haunt them given recent news on Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep – they did improve the bullpen, signing Robert Suarez to a three-year, $45m deal to serve as the eighth inning man behind Raisel Iglesias.
Suarez is talented enough to be a closer in his own right, raking in 76 saves over the last two seasons for the San Diego Padres. They also retained the services of Tyler Kinley, who improved significantly for the Braves after a mid-season trade from the Colorado Rockies (wonder why?), racking up 1.3 bWAR with an ERA of 0.72 over his last 24 games. The Braves will also hope that down-years from Ian Hamilton and Joel Payamps in 2025 meant they got a bargain for 2026 to shore up their lower-leverage arms.
Drake’s Passage (to more playing time)
Drake Baldwin is fresh off a Rookie of the Year campaign that saw him plunder 3.3 bWAR and a 126 OPS+ as an everyday catcher. Pressed into service early due to (say it with me!) an injury to Sean Murphy in Spring Training, Drake caught the prevailing wind and never stopped.
This year, after losing Marcell Ozuna in free-agency, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Baldwin in the DH slot when he’s not catching, a-la Salvador Perez or Cal Raleigh. Here’s my bold prediction – look for Drake to break Javy Lopez’s record for most home runs as a Braves catcher (43 in 2003).
Chris Sale is sticking around
Some welcome news for the start of Spring – 2024 Cy Young winner Chris Sale signed a one year contract extension through the 2027 season for $27m, with a further one year club option for $30m in 2028. The wiry lefty has made his desire to finish out his career in Atlanta known, and the club rewarded him. There’s an chance that Sale finishes his career north of 3,000 strikeouts – he’s currently sitting on 2,579 Ks, and 140 strikeouts through the three years left on his new contract would get him into rarified air.
Walt Weiss-to meet you
It seems most people agreed that long-time manager and franchise great Brian Snitker was getting a little long in the tooth as Braves manager. After 49 years as an Atlanta Brave, Snitker retired as manager following the 2025 season and will rightly be immediately inducted into the team’s Hall of Fame. His replacement is Walt Weiss, the 1988 Rookie of the Year, former Rockies manager and the bench coach for the Braves since 2017.
In some ways, this might be seen as a lateral move – but some of Snitker’s bullpen decisions and man-management was causing friction in and out of the locker room. Weiss is a trusted hand, and coupled with some new additions to the pitching coaching staff, these changes might be bigger than most believe.
Despite everything, this team is still really good
Given that the hooded spectre of injuries has reared its head one too many times over the past couple of years, it’s sometimes hard to see just how good the rest of this roster is. Ronald Acuña Jr., Matt Olson, Chris Sale and Austin Riley are all capable of putting up MVP-level seasons. Drake Baldwin and Michael Harris II are both rookies of the year under the age of 25. Spencer Strider and Reynaldo Lopez are ready and raring to go after injury layoffs. Ozzie Albies, Jurickson Profar and Mike Yastrzemski are all solid, capable two-plus win players. This is a team that absolutely should be in the mix for a pennant when all is said and done. The pieces are all there – it’s in the hands of the baseball gods now.
Charlie Deeks is Bat Flips and Nerds’ Atlanta Braves contributor. He can be found on Bluesky at @charliedeeks.bluesky.social.
Image credit: Kevin D. Liles/Atlanta Braves/Getty Images
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