Italy rolls, Mexico flops, USA bites nails

Francisco Cervelli’s Azzurri produced another masterclass with an emphatic win over Mexico, cruising into the knockout stage undefeated.

And, as a by-product, they saved Team USA’s reputation, Mark DeRosa’s job, and probably the future of the tournament itself.

The path for the United States to the quarter-finals – a Friday midnight showdown against Canada – was effectively sealed when Italy’s Jakob Marsee delivered a two-RBI single in the fifth to make it 5–0.

Mathematically, it wasn’t 100%, but even if Mexico had staged a comeback, the USA would have progressed thanks to the runs-allowed tiebreaker.

Sure, it would have been deliciously ironic to see Team USA’s arrogance dumped in the pool stages. But that would have been bad for a tournament still fighting for respect outside baseball circles. #ItIsNotAnExhibition

Michael Lorenzen had been pencilled in to start against the USA, with Italy saving Aaron Nola for the must-win clash against Mexico. Pre-tournament, you can imagine that Italy expected two wins against GB and Brazil, and a loss to the USA, making the Mexico game the decider.

Enter the Rockies: first, they pulled José Quintana after 30 pitches against Puerto Rico; now, they insisted Lorenzen stick to his routine and pitch against the USA. Clearly, Colorado is taking 2026 seriously.

Nola, whose family originates from the town of Nola just outside Napoli, delivered arguably the best pitching performance of the WBC so far: five scoreless innings, five strikeouts, all within the 65-pitch limit. With the veteran starter doing his bit, it was up to the Italian bats.

And bats they had. The top half of Italy’s lineup had gone 0-for-22 against the USA previously – something needed to change.

Javier Assad started for Mexico, and first up in the second inning was Royals’ first baseman Vinnie Pasquantino, the self-appointed commander-in-chief of the espresso machine.

The Royals’ first baseman had flashed some exceptional defensive plays during the tournament – “I don’t ever want to become a DH” – but his bat was ice cold through the first three games (0-for-12).

Pasquantino took Assad deep on just the second pitch of the inning. The 28-year-old got a shot of espresso, two kisses from stand-in barista Jakob Marsee, and Italy was up and running.

And they never stopped.

Jon Berti, still looking for a 2026 playing gig, doubled the lead with a solo homer. Jac Caglianone scored on a Dante Nori sac bunt – Italy was relentless, seizing every opportunity.

When Jakob Marsee hit a two-RBI single in the fifth, there was a nationwide sigh of relief. Not across Italy, but across the USA. Five runs for Italy almost guaranteed the USA’s path to the knockout stages.

Italy still had work to do. A Mexico comeback would dump the Azzurri out of the tournament, despite a 3-1 record.

Mexico still had a pulse, of course. With a roster packed with MLB stars, a comeback was possible.

It was when Pasquantino hit his third home run – no one has ever had a three-homer game in the WBC before – that the message appeared to sink in throughout the baseball world: the win against the USA wasn’t a fluke. This Italian team is a contender. They are young, they are aggressive, and they are fearless.

Flamboyance and gamesmanship were on display, too. White Sox prospect Sam Antonacci – quietly becoming one of the tournament’s stars – dived for a non-existent ground ball up the middle, tricking Joey Ortiz into breaking for third – only for the routine flyball to double him up. This wasn’t luck; it was flair with purpose.

Italy’s power was undeniable. By the 9–1 final score, they’d amassed 12 homers in four pool games – nearly the most any team has hit in an entire WBC tournament (Mexico hit 14 in 2009).

Mexico version 2026, by contrast, failed to do itself justice in front of the raucous partisan crowd at Daikin Park. Jarren Duran failed to get on base, and Randy Arozarena struck out three times.

Italian-born Gabriele Quattrini, from Serie A Macerata, closed out the final four outs with poise, eyes already on the quarter-finals.

Much is said about eligibility rules – that they somehow “spoil” the WBC. But without Jac Caglianone, Andrew Fischer, Pasquantino and the others, this tournament would be poorer.

Italy’s domestic scene is thriving. The team that clinched the silver medal at the 2025 European Championship was almost entirely composed of guys playing in Italy.

And although baseball is still a minority sport in Italy, they probably have 10 times as many baseball fields (most with permanent fencing) as the UK. And they have some of the best baseball stadiums in Europe.

Angels prospect Sam Aldegheri was the first-born-and-bred Italian to play in MLB. He is set to start against Puerto Rico in the quarter-final on Saturday.

He was the first. Others will follow.

Quarter-finals Outlook

Looking ahead, the knockout stage is loaded.

Korea v Dominican Republic: 10:30pm Friday 13 March
USA v Canada: Midnight Friday 13 March
Puerto Rico v Italy: 7:00pm Saturday 14 March
Venezuela v Japan: 1:00am Sunday 15 March

If the Dominican Republic, which held on to win, despite a last-inning flourish from Venezuela, are already looking ahead to a potential semi-final against the USA, they are making a mistake. Korea has proved it has many ways to win a baseball game.

The USA v Canada clash looks lopsided. No way will the USA allow complacency to sneak in again.

I’m pretty sure DeRo won’t comment, but it looks nailed on that the USA have “punched their ticket” to semi final.

Puerto Rico v Italy and Venezuela v Japan are too close to call.

Side note 1: The half-marathon I’m running on Sunday will be challenging, given that I’ll have around three hours of sleep after the Japan v Venezuela game.

Side note 2: Two Olympic spots are up for grabs via the WBC. If we get semi-finals of the USA v Korea and Italy v Japan, do you know who gets the spots? None of them. The rules dictate that these two Olympic places must go to countries from the Americas.

But for now, Italy can celebrate its unbeaten run in the pool stage, and the USA can breathe a tentative sigh of relief, and the WBC continues to prove that, on the international stage, nothing is guaranteed – not even for the most stacked lineups.

Featured image by Houston Astros/Getty Images