Baseball is in full flow, and with the first month of the Cardinals season behind them, I’m going to look back on some of the key takeaways from the season so far:
- They’ve had an unexpectedly good start.
Fangraphs had the Redbirds at an 8.5% chance of making the postseason at the beginning of the year, the lowest in what is a drastically improved NL Central division over the last few years. That chance has now risen to over 25%.
The team boasted a solid 19-13 record as April ended, with key series victories including a 3-game sweep of the Houston Astros and a 4-game sweep of the Pittsburgh Pirates giving fans something to talk about and showing the young squad can still hang with some of baseball’s big boys.
St. Louis have managed to put a solid dent in what looked to be a relatively tricky schedule to start the year, and it’ll be interesting to see if it carries on.
- The young players are performing well!
In my 5 reasons for optimism, I listed the Cardinals glut of youthful players as something to keep an eye on this year.
Namely, I placed a lot of emphasis on talented outfielder Jordan Walker, and he’s taken a mammoth step to start the year. The 23-year-old ranked top 10 across the league in slugging, wRC+ and offensive run value in April as well as boasting 8 home runs.
His advanced stats suggest huge progress, as he ranks in high 90th percentiles in most offensive categories, namely xWOBA, showing that Walker’s hitting has improved massively as he makes harder contact at better launch angles.
Furthermore, it looks like JJ Wetherholt could be the franchise cornerstone many fans are expecting him to be. The infielder has not only made incredible plays on the defensive side of the ball, but his bat also seems to be solid at the major league level too, with a 128 wRC+.
Nathan Church has also been a pleasant surprise and was not someone I’d listed in my original piece despite the fact he eventually won the opening day left field sweepstakes. He’s demonstrated power with the bat but made headlines for two fantastic home run robberies.
- Riley O’Brien has been good, like really good.
Riley O’Brien would probably be in serious contention for NL Reliever of the Year if Mason Miller wasn’t around.
I never expected much from O’Brien when he was acquired for cash considerations back in November of 2023 but the 31-year-old former Mariner has showcased elite control with a 1.5 BB% and induces a very high level of ground balls which complements the Cardinals solid infield defence. He was tied for 3rd in saves with 8 across April and his Baseball Savant page would probably make those into advanced stats very happy.
The closer is under team control until 2031, and should prove a very valuable asset to the team in future if he keeps pitching like this or close to it.
- Pitching has been otherwise pretty poor.
The Cardinals held the league’s worst K% in April at 17.7% with 19% next highest. The pitching was also bottom 5 in ERA at 4.67. St. Louis have consistently been in the bottom half of the ERA table since 2023 and not demonstrated much improvement so far.
Flamethrowing free agent Dustin May has had his issues, and former bullpen piece turned starter Kyle Leahy has yet to adapt it seems. As well as this, the bullpen has largely struggled with the previously reliable JoJo Romero having a poor start.
Simply put, its just not good. Teams with such low strikeout rates rarely see playoff baseball. In 2025, playoff teams had an average K% of 23.2% and its clear this is something the Cardinals need to work on if they want to make use of their talented core.
All in all, April was likely a much better month than most expected from the youngest roster in the league and it shows promising signs for the future, but also tells fans that this core is here to play now and could help ease expectations of a long rebuild in the eyes of a fanbase which is used to winning.
Article by Fraser Russell – you can find him @frastalks on Instagram
Featured image credit goes to Nick Cammett/Getty Images
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